The semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem

In a smooth semiparametric estimation problem, the marginal posterior for the parameter of interest is expected to be asymptotically normal and satisfy frequentist criteria of optimality if the model is endowed with a suitable prior. It is shown that, under certain straightforward and interpretable conditions, the assertion of Le Cam's acclaimed, but strictly parametric, Bernstein-von Mises theorem [Univ. California Publ. Statist. 1 (1953) 277-329] holds in the semiparametric situation as well. As a consequence, Bayesian point-estimators achieve efficiency, for example, in the sense of H\'{a}jek's convolution theorem [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 14 (1970) 323-330]. The model is required to satisfy differentiability and metric entropy conditions, while the nuisance prior must assign nonzero mass to certain Kullback-Leibler neighborhoods [Ghosal, Ghosh and van der Vaart Ann. Statist. 28 (2000) 500-531]. In addition, the marginal posterior is required to converge at parametric rate, which appears to be the most stringent condition in examples. The results are applied to estimation of the linear coefficient in partial linear regression, with a Gaussian prior on a smoothness class for the nuisance.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS921 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Development of flight check-out system Final report

Flight checkout system breadboard design, construction and testin

On a semiparametric survival model with flexible covariate effect.

A semiparametric hazard model with parametrized time but general covariate dependency is formulated and analyzed inside the framework of counting process theory. A profile likelihood principle is introduced for estimation of the parameters: the resulting estimator is n1/2-consistent, asymptotically normal and achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. An estimation procedure for the nonparametric part is also given and its asymptotic properties are derived. We provide an application to mortality data.

The Bayesian Analysis of Complex, High-Dimensional Models: Can It Be CODA?

We consider the Bayesian analysis of a few complex, high-dimensional models and show that intuitive priors, which are not tailored to the fine details of the model and the estimated parameters, produce estimators which perform poorly in situations in which good, simple frequentist estimators exist. The models we consider are: stratified sampling, the partial linear model, linear and quadratic functionals of white noise and estimation with stopping times. We present a strong version of Doob's consistency theorem which demonstrates that the existence of a uniformly $\sqrt{n}$-consistent estimator ensures that the Bayes posterior is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent for values of the parameter in subsets of prior probability 1. We also demonstrate that it is, at least, in principle, possible to construct Bayes priors giving both global and local minimax rates, using a suitable combination of loss functions. We argue that there is no contradiction in these apparently conflicting findings.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-STS483 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An efficiency upper bound for inverse covariance estimation

We derive an upper bound for the efficiency of estimating entries in the inverse covariance matrix of a high dimensional distribution. We show that in order to approximate an off-diagonal entry of the density matrix of a $d$-dimensional Gaussian random vector, one needs at least a number of samples proportional to $d$. Furthermore, we show that with $n \ll d$ samples, the hypothesis that two given coordinates are fully correlated, when all other coordinates are conditioned to be zero, cannot be told apart from the hypothesis that the two are uncorrelated.Comment: 7 Page

Face vs. empathy: the social foundation of Maithili verb agreement

Maithili features one of the most complex agreement systems of any Indo-Aryan language. Not only nominative and non-nominative subjects, but also objects, other core arguments, and even nonarguments are cross-referenced, allowing for a maximum of three participants encoded by the verb desinences. The categories reflected in the morphology are person, honorific degree, and, in the case of third persons, gender, spatial distance, and focus. However, not all combinations of category choices are equally represented, and there are many cases of neutralization. We demonstrate that the paradigm structure of Maithili verb agreement is not arbitrary but can be predicted by two general principles of interaction in Maithil society: a principle of social hierarchy underlying the evaluation of people's "face” (Brown and Levinson 1987[1978]), and a principle of social solidarity defining degrees of "empathy” (Kuno 1987) to which people identify with others. Maithili verb agreement not only reflects a specific style of social cognition but also constitutes a prime means of maintaining this style by requiring constant attention to its defining parameters. In line with this, we find that the system is partly reduced by uneducated, so-called lower-caste speakers, who are least interested in maintaining this style, especially its emphasis on hierarch

Randomization tests in language typology

Two of the major assumptions that common statistical tests make about random sampling and distribution of the data are not tenable for most typological data. We suggest to use randomization tests, which avoid these assumptions. Randomization is applicable to frequency data, rank data, scalar measurements, and ratings, so most typological data can be analyzed with the same tools. We provided a free computer program, which also includes routines that help determine the degree to which a statistical conclusion is reliable or dependent on a few languages in the sampl

Pivotal estimation in high-dimensional regression via linear programming

We propose a new method of estimation in high-dimensional linear regression model. It allows for very weak distributional assumptions including heteroscedasticity, and does not require the knowledge of the variance of random errors. The method is based on linear programming only, so that its numerical implementation is faster than for previously known techniques using conic programs, and it allows one to deal with higher dimensional models. We provide upper bounds for estimation and prediction errors of the proposed estimator showing that it achieves the same rate as in the more restrictive situation of fixed design and i.i.d. Gaussian errors with known variance. Following Gautier and Tsybakov (2011), we obtain the results under weaker sensitivity assumptions than the restricted eigenvalue or assimilated conditions

Minimax Estimation of Nonregular Parameters and Discontinuity in Minimax Risk

When a parameter of interest is nondifferentiable in the probability, the existing theory of semiparametric efficient estimation is not applicable, as it does not have an influence function. Song (2014) recently developed a local asymptotic minimax estimation theory for a parameter that is a nondifferentiable transform of a regular parameter, where the nondifferentiable transform is a composite map of a continuous piecewise linear map with a single kink point and a translation-scale equivariant map. The contribution of this paper is two fold. First, this paper extends the local asymptotic minimax theory to nondifferentiable transforms that are a composite map of a Lipschitz continuous map having a finite set of nondifferentiability points and a translation-scale equivariant map. Second, this paper investigates the discontinuity of the local asymptotic minimax risk in the true probability and shows that the proposed estimator remains to be optimal even when the risk is locally robustified not only over the scores at the true probability, but also over the true probability itself. However, the local robustification does not resolve the issue of discontinuity in the local asymptotic minimax risk